Storms will begin to initiate in the next hour from a line from Killarney, Manitoba to Winnipeg City (depicted above). Strong instability spreading into Manitoba and no capping will fire off storms early. These will become severe very quickly with all hazards possible before storms merge into a line and drift southeast. Below is a satellite imagery depicting the cold front moving into southern Manitoba, depicted by gravity waves south of Brandon to Portage La Prairie. This will provide forcing for severe thunderstorms.
Below is the surface observations at 12:30pm CDT showing the cold front and warm air moving into southern Manitoba. The wind direction is almost parallel to the cold front, making the primary risk damaging winds and hail, however enough veering and local enhancements should be good for some tornado activity (much like yesterday in Saskatchewan).
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